Hi there,
Probability of colleges depends more on the rank you get which further depends on a lot of factors like difficulty level of the paper, number of students appeared etc.
But going by previous years data it might be difficult for you to secure a government MBBS seat through 15% AIQ since marks at which a government college was allotted in mopup round of counselling was 582 in Mizoram Institute of Medical Education and Research for a general category student.
Chances to get a government seat through 85% state quota are also bleak since last year it was at 628 marks that a government seat was allotted in second round of counselling in GMC Durgapur. You can refer this article to know more about the cutoffs of different colleges- https://medicine.careers360.com/articles/neet-cutoff-rajasthan
But you do have chances of getting a seat in Private medical college by both 85% state quota and 15% AIQ. You can use this link to predict colleges you might have chance in-
https://medicine.careers360.com/neet-college-predictor?utm_source=qna&utm_medium=neet_cp
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